Investigating the social dilemma of an epidemic model with provaccination and antivaccination groups: An evolutionary approach

In this study, an epidemiological model with the provaccination and antivaccination susceptible groups is proposed, and the social dilemma of the model is analyzed. During a pandemic, such as the current COVID-19, many individuals get confused to choose the option of adopting a provaccination or antivaccination strategy based on the number of infected people and the payoff of being infected. In the proposed model, people can obtain immunity either through vaccination or by getting infected with the disease which is known as natural immunity. In addition, increasing the waning immunity influences the choice of adopting the provaccination or antivaccination strategy. We used the behavior model to analyze the choice of the two strategies, where any individual can choose a strategy based on the number of infected individuals from each group. Moreover, individuals who are already infected can choose their strategy based on the payoff of their disease cost or vaccination cost. Our results show that, at Nash equilibrium, individuals in both groups behave the same. Further, from our numerical results, increasing the number of vaccinations can reduce the social dilemma whereas an increase in the waning immunity rate increases the social dilemma.

Within-host modeling to measure dynamics of antibody responses after natural infection or vaccination: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Within-host models describe the dynamics of immune cells when encountering a pathogen, and how these dynamics can lead to an individual-specific immune response. This systematic review aims to summarize which within-host methodology has been used to study and quantify antibody kinetics after infection or vaccination. In particular, we focus on data-driven and theory-driven mechanistic models. MATERIALS: PubMed and Web of Science databases were used to identify eligible papers published until May 2022. Eligible publications included those studying mathematical models that measure antibody kinetics as the primary outcome (ranging from phenomenological to mechanistic models). RESULTS: We identified 78 eligible publications, of which 8 relied on an Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs)-based modelling approach to describe antibody kinetics after vaccination, and 12 studies used such models in the context of humoral immunity induced by natural infection. Mechanistic modeling studies were summarized in terms of type of study, sample size, measurements collected, antibody half-life, compartments and parameters included, inferential or analytical method, and model selection. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the importance of investigating antibody kinetics and underlying mechanisms of (waning of) the humoral immunity, few publications explicitly account for this in a mathematical model. In particular, most research focuses on phenomenological rather than mechanistic models. The limited information on the age groups or other risk factors that might impact antibody kinetics, as well as a lack of experimental or observational data remain important concerns regarding the interpretation of mathematical modeling results. We reviewed the similarities between the kinetics following vaccination and infection, emphasising that it may be worth translating some features from one setting to another. However, we also stress that some biological mechanisms need to be distinguished. We found that data-driven mechanistic models tend to be more simplistic, and theory-driven approaches lack representative data to validate model results.

Modeling the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant dynamics in the United States with booster dose vaccination and waning immunity.

We carried out a theoretical and numerical analysis for an epidemic model to analyze the dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant and the impact of vaccination campaigns in the United States. The model proposed here includes asymptomatic and hospitalized compartments, vaccination with booster doses, and the waning of natural and vaccine-acquired immunity. We also consider the influence of face mask usage and efficiency. We found that enhancing booster doses and using N95 face masks are associated with a reduction in the number of new infections, hospitalizations and deaths. We highly recommend the use of surgical face masks as well, if usage of N95 is not a possibility due to the price range. Our simulations show that there might be two upcoming Omicron waves (in mid-2022 and late 2022), caused by natural and acquired immunity waning with respect to time. The magnitude of these waves will be 53% and 25% lower than the peak in January 2022, respectively. Hence, we recommend continuing to use face masks to decrease the peak of the upcoming COVID-19 waves.

Sensitivity of endemic behaviour of COVID-19 under a multi-dose vaccination regime, to various biological parameters and control variables.

For an infectious disease such as COVID-19, we present a new four-stage vaccination model (unvaccinated, dose 1 + 2, booster, repeated boosters), which examines the impact of vaccination coverage, vaccination rate, generation interval, control reproduction number, vaccine efficacies and rates of waning immunity upon the dynamics of infection. We derive a single equation that allows computation of equilibrium prevalence and incidence of infection, given knowledge about these parameters and variable values. Based upon a 20-compartment model, we develop a numerical simulation of the associated differential equations. The model is not a forecasting or even predictive one, given the uncertainty about several biological parameter values. Rather, it is intended to aid a qualitative understanding of how equilibrium levels of infection may be impacted upon, by the parameters of the system. We examine one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis around a base case scenario. The key finding which should be of interest to policymakers is that while factors such as improved vaccine efficacy, increased vaccination rates, lower waning rates and more stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions might be thought to improve equilibrium levels of infection, this might only be done to good effect if vaccination coverage on a recurrent basis is sufficiently high.

Waning effectiveness against COVID-19-related hospitalization, severe complications, and mortality with two to three doses of CoronaVac and BNT162b2: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to evaluate waning effectiveness against severe and fatal COVID-19 with two to three doses of CoronaVac/BNT162b2, where data are limited. METHODS: A case-control study included individuals aged ≥18 years, unvaccinated or received two to three doses of CoronaVac/BNT162b2, using electronic healthcare databases in Hong Kong. Those with first COVID-19-related hospitalization, severe complications, or mortality between 1 January and 15 August 2022 were defined as cases and matched with up-to-10 controls by age, sex, index date, and Charlson Comorbidity Index. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19-related outcomes was estimated at different time intervals from second and third-dose vaccination (0-13 up-to 210-240 days) using conditional logistic regression adjusted for comorbidities and medications. RESULTS: By 211-240 days after second dose, VE against COVID-19-related hospitalization reduced to 46.6% (40.7-51.8%) for BNT162b2 and 36.2% (28.0-43.4%) for CoronaVac, and VE against COVID-19-related mortality were 73.8% (55.9-84.4%) and 76.6% (60.8-86.0%). After third dose, VE against COVID-19-related hospitalization decreased from 91.2% (89.5-92.6%) for BNT162b2 and 76.7% (73.7-79.4%) for CoronaVac at 0-13 days, to 67.1% (60.4-72.6%) and 51.3% (44.2-57.5%) at 91-120 days. VE against COVID-19-related mortality for BNT162b2 remained high from 0-13 days [98.2% (95.0-99.3%)] to 91-120 days [94.6% (77.7-98.7%)], and for CoronaVac reduced from 0-13 days [96.7% (93.2-98.4%)] to 91-120 days [86.4% (73.3-93.1%)]. CONCLUSIONS: Significant risk reduction against COVID-19-related hospitalization and mortality after CoronaVac or BNT162b2 vaccination was observed for >240 and >120 days after second and third doses compared to unvaccinated, despite significant waning over time. Timely administration of booster doses could provide higher levels of protection.

Trajectory and Demographic Correlates of Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 Nucleocapsid in Recently Infected Blood Donors, United States.

We evaluated antibodies to the nucleocapsid protein of SARS-CoV-2 in a large cohort of blood donors in the United States who were recently infected with the virus. Antibodies to the nucleocapsid protein of SARS-CoV-2 indicate previous infection but are subject to waning, potentially affecting epidemiologic studies. We longitudinally evaluated a cohort of 19,323 blood donors who had evidence of recent infection by using a widely available serologic test to determine the dynamics of such waning. We analyzed overall signal-to-cutoff values for 48,330 donations (average 2.5 donations/person) that had an average observation period of 102 days. The observed peak signal-to-cutoff value varied widely, but the waning rate was consistent across the range, with a half-life of 122 days. Within the cohort, only 0.75% of persons became seronegative. Factors predictive of higher peak values and longer time to seroreversion included increasing age, male sex, higher body mass index, and non-Caucasian race.

An Age of Infection Kernel, an R Formula, and Further Results for Arino–Brauer A, B Matrix Epidemic Models with Varying Populations, Waning Immunity, and Disease and Vaccination Fatalities

In this work, we first introduce a class of deterministic epidemic models with varying populations inspired by Arino et al. (2007), the parameterization of two matrices, demography, the waning of immunity, and vaccination parameters. Similar models have been focused on by Julien Arino, Fred Brauer, Odo Diekmann, and their coauthors, but mostly in the case of "closed populations” (models with varying populations have been studied in the past only in particular cases, due to the difficulty of this endeavor). Our Arino–Brauer models contain SIR–PH models of Riano (2020), which are characterized by the phase-type distribution (Formula presented.), modeling transitions in "disease/infectious compartments”. The A matrix is simply the Metzler/sub-generator matrix intervening in the linear system obtained by making all new infectious terms 0. The simplest way to define the probability row vector (Formula presented.) is to restrict it to the case where there is only one susceptible class (Formula presented.), and when matrix B (given by the part of the new infection matrix, with respect to (Formula presented.)) is of rank one, with (Formula presented.). For this case, the first result we obtained was an explicit formula (12) for the replacement number (not surprisingly, accounting for varying demography, waning immunity and vaccinations led to several nontrivial modifications of the Arino et al. (2007) formula). The analysis of (Formula presented.) Arino–Brauer models is very challenging. As obtaining further general results seems very hard, we propose studying them at three levels: (A) the exact model, where only a few results are available—see Proposition 2;and (B) a "first approximation” (FA) of our model, which is related to the usually closed population model often studied in the literature. Notably, for this approximation, an associated renewal function is obtained in (7);this is related to the previous works of Breda, Diekmann, Graaf, Pugliese, Vermiglio, Champredon, Dushoff, and Earn. (C) Finally, we propose studying a second heuristic "intermediate approximation” (IA). Perhaps our main contribution is to draw attention to the importance of (Formula presented.) Arino–Brauer models and that the FA approximation is not the only way to tackle them. As for the practical importance of our results, this is evident, once we observe that the (Formula presented.) Arino–Brauer models include a large number of epidemic models (COVID, ILI, influenza, illnesses, etc.). © 2023 by the authors.

Determination of significant immunological timescales from mRNA-LNP-based vaccines in humans.

A compartment model for an in-host liquid nanoparticle delivered mRNA vaccine is presented. Through non-dimensionalisation, five timescales are identified that dictate the lifetime of the vaccine in-host: decay of interferon gamma, antibody priming, autocatalytic growth, antibody peak and decay, and interleukin cessation. Through asymptotic analysis we are able to obtain semi-analytical solutions in each of the time regimes which allows us to predict maximal concentrations and better understand parameter dependence in the model. We compare our model to 22 data sets for the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 mRNA vaccines demonstrating good agreement. Using our analysis, we estimate the values for each of the five timescales in each data set and predict maximal concentrations of plasma B-cells, antibody, and interleukin. Through our comparison, we do not observe any discernible differences between vaccine candidates and sex. However, we do identify an age dependence, specifically that vaccine activation takes longer and that peak antibody occurs sooner in patients aged 55 and greater.

Dynamics of Antibody Responses after Asymptomatic and Mild to Moderate SARS-CoV-2 Infections: Real-World Data in a Resource-Limited Country.

The dynamics of humoral immune responses of patients after SARS-CoV-2 infection is unclear. This study prospectively observed changes in anti-receptor binding domain immunoglobulin G (anti-RBD IgG) and neutralizing antibodies against the Wuhan and Delta strains at 1, 3, and 6 months postinfection between October 2021 and May 2022. Demographic data, clinical characteristics, baseline parameters, and blood samples of participants were collected. Of 5059 SARS-CoV-2 infected adult patients, only 600 underwent assessment at least once between 3 and 6 months after symptom onset. Patients were categorized as immunocompetent (n = 566), immunocompromised (n = 14), or reinfected (n = 20). A booster dose of a COVID-19 vaccine was strongly associated with maintained or increased COVID-19 antibody levels. The booster dose was also more strongly associated with antibody responses than the primary vaccination series. Among patients receiving a booster dose of a mRNA vaccine or a heterologous regimen, antibody levels remained steady or even increased for 3 to 6 months after symptom onset compared with inactivated or viral vector vaccines. There was a strong correlation between anti-RBD IgG and neutralizing antibodies against the Delta variant. This study is relevant to resource-limited countries for administering COVID-19 vaccines 3 to 6 months after infection.

A Novel Approach to Obtain Vaccine Effectiveness Continuous Profiles. Example Case: COVID-19 in Elderly Mexicans.

Population-wide vaccination is the most promising long-term COVID-19 disease management strategy. However, the protection offered by the currently available COVID-19 vaccines wanes over time, requiring boosters to be periodically given, which represents an unattainable challenge, especially if it is necessary to apply several doses per year. Therefore, it is essential to design strategies that contribute to maximizing the control of the pandemic with the available vaccines. Achieving this objective requires knowing, as precisely and accurately as possible, the changes in vaccine effectiveness over time in each population group, considering the eventual dependence on age, sex, etc. Thus, the present work proposes a novel approach to calculating realistic effectiveness profiles against symptomatic disease. In addition, this strategy can be adapted to estimate realistic effectiveness profiles against hospitalizations or deaths. All such time-dependent profiles allow the design of improved vaccination schedules, where each dose can be administrated to the population groups so that the fulfillment of the containment objectives is maximized. As a practical example for this analysis, vaccination against COVID-19 in Mexico was considered. However, this methodology can be applied to other countries' data or to characterize future vaccines with time-dependent effectiveness values. Since this strategy uses aggregated observational data collected from massive databases, assumptions about the data validity and the course of the studied epidemic could eventually be necessary.

Impact of Vaccination, Prior Infection and Therapy on Omicron Infection and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the immunity against omicron infection and severe outcomes conferred by Covid-19 vaccination, prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, and monoclonal antibody therapy will inform intervention strategies. METHODS: We considered 295,691 patients who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 at Cleveland Clinic between October 1, 2021 and January 31, 2022. We used logistic regression to investigate the association of vaccination and prior infection with the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and used Cox regression to investigate the association of vaccination, prior infection and monoclonal antibody therapy with the risks of intensive care unit (ICU) stay and death. RESULTS: Vaccination and prior infection were less effective against omicron than delta infection but provided strong protection against ICU admission and death. Boosting greatly increased vaccine effectiveness against omicron infection and severe outcomes, though the effectiveness waned rapidly over time. Monoclonal antibody therapy considerably reduced the risks of ICU admission and death. Finally, the relatively low mortality of the omicron variant was due to both the reduced lethality of this variant and the increased population immunity acquired from booster vaccination and previous infection. CONCLUSIONS: Booster vaccination and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection provide strong protection against ICU admission and death from omicron infection. Monoclonal antibody therapy is also beneficial.

Waning of Antibody Response Among Vaccinees who Received Two Doses of Covishield Vaccine.

Introduction: There are limited data available on the long-term presence of SARS-CoV-2-specific binding antibodies and neutralizing antibodies in circulation among the elderly population. This study aims to examine levels of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in vaccines who have completed at least 6 months since the second vaccine dose. A cross-sectional study was conducted from November 2021 to January 2022 among 199 vaccines aged 60 years and above residing in Belagavi city, who received two doses of the Covishield vaccine. Methods: Antibody response to SARS-COV-2 virus whole cell antigen was measured by a kit COVID KAWACH IgG Micro LISA (J Mitra and Company, India) in 199 participants who had completed at least 6 months after receiving the second dose of Covishield vaccine. The antibody response was measured as a ratio of optical density (OD) in the participant's sample to the mean OD in negative control test by normal (T/N). Independent Kruskal-Wallis test was applied to test the difference between the T/N ratio by months of vaccination since the second dose and by the age group strata. Results: The median T/N values among participants who completed 6, 7, 8, and 9 months since the second vaccine dose were 14.17, 10.46, 7.93, and 5.11, respectively, and this decline in T/N values was statistically significant. Antibody response values showed a decline with increasing age for participants in the age strata 60-69, 70-79, and 80 and above, respectively. Conclusions: A significant decline was observed in antibody response over 9 months supporting the administration of booster dose of vaccine.

SARS-CoV-2 antibody dynamics over time and risk factors associated with infection and long COVID-19 symptoms in large working environments.

BACKGROUND: Factors influencing SARS-CoV-2 antibody dynamics, transmission, waning and long COVID-19 symptomatology are still not fully understood. METHODS: In the Danish section of the Novo Nordisk Group, we performed a prospective seroepidemiological study during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. All employees and their household members (>18 years) were invited to participate in a baseline (June-August 2020), 6-month follow-up (December 2020-January 2021), and 12-month follow-up (August 2021) sampling. In total, 18,614 accepted and provided at least one blood sample and completed a questionnaire regarding socioeconomic background, health status, previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, and persistent symptoms. Total antibody and specific IgM, IgG and IgA levels against recombinant receptor binding domain were tested. RESULTS: At baseline, the SARS-CoV-2-antibody seroprevalence was 3.9%. At 6-month follow-up, the seroprevalence was 9.1%, while at 12-month follow-up, the seroprevalence was 94.4% (after the vaccine roll-out). Male sex and younger age (18-40 years) were significant risk factors for seropositivity. From baseline to the 6-month sampling, we observed a substantial waning of IgM, IgG and IgA levels (p < 0.001), regardless of age, sex and initial antibody level. An increased antibody level was found in individuals infected prior to vaccination compared to vaccinated infection naïves (p < 0.0001). Approximately a third of the seropositive individuals reported one or more persistent COVID-19 symptoms, with anosmia and/or ageusia (17.5%) and fatigue (15.3%) being the most prevalent. CONCLUSION: The study provides a comprehensive insight into SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence following infection and vaccination, waning, persistent COVID-19 symptomatology and risk factors for seropositivity in large working environments.

Higher plasma levels of thymosin-α1 are associated with a lower waning of humoral response after COVID-19 vaccination: an eight months follow-up study in a nursing home.

BACKGROUND: Older people achieve lower levels of antibody titers than younger populations after Covid-19 vaccination and show a marked waning humoral immunity over time, likely due to the senescence of the immune system. Nevertheless, age-related predictive factors of the waning humoral immune response to the vaccine have been scarcely explored. In a cohort of residents and healthcare workers from a nursing home that had received two doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine, we measured specific anti-S antibodies one (T1), four (T4), and eight (T8) months after receiving the second dose. Thymic-related functional markers, including thymic output, relative telomere length, and plasma thymosin-α1 levels, as well as immune cellular subsets, and biochemical and inflammatory biomarkers, were determined at T1, and tested for their associations with the magnitude of the vaccine response (T1) and the durability of such response both, at the short- (T1-T4) and the long-term (T1-T8). We aimed to identify age-related factors potentially associated with the magnitude and persistence of specific anti-S immunoglobulin G (IgG)-antibodies after COVID-19 vaccination in older people. RESULTS: Participants (100% men, n = 98), were subdivided into three groups: young (< 50 years-old), middle-age (50-65 years-old), and older (≥65 years-old). Older participants achieved lower antibody titers at T1 and experienced higher decreases in both the short- and long-term. In the entire cohort, while the magnitude of the initial response was mainly associated with the levels of homocysteine [ß (95% CI); - 0.155 (- 0.241 to - 0.068); p = 0.001], the durability of such response at both, the short-term and the long-term were predicted by the levels of thymosin-α1 [- 0.168 (- 0.305 to - 0.031); p = 0.017, and - 0.123 (- 0.212 to - 0.034); p = 0.008, respectively]. CONCLUSIONS: Higher plasma levels of thymosin-α1 were associated with a lower waning of anti-S IgG antibodies along the time. Our results suggest that plasma levels of thymosin-α1 could be used as a biomarker for predicting the durability of the responses after COVID-19 vaccination, possibly allowing to personalize the administration of vaccine boosters.

Effectiveness of first and second COVID-19 mRNA vaccine monovalent booster doses during a period of circulation of Omicron variant sublineages: December 2021-July 2022.

Background: US recommendations for COVID-19 vaccine boosters have expanded in terms of age groups covered and numbers of doses recommended, whereas evolution of Omicron sublineages raises questions about ongoing vaccine effectiveness. Methods: We estimated effectiveness of monovalent COVID-19 mRNA booster vaccination versus two-dose primary series during a period of Omicron variant virus circulation in a community cohort with active illness surveillance. Hazard ratios comparing SARS-CoV-2 infection between booster versus primary series vaccinated individuals were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying booster status. Models were adjusted for age and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. The effectiveness of a second booster among adults ≥50 years of age was similarly estimated. Results: The analysis included 883 participants ranging in age, from 5 to >90 years. Relative effectiveness was 51% (95% CI: 34%, 64%) favoring the booster compared with primary series vaccination and did not vary by prior infection status. Relative effectiveness was 74% (95% CI: 57%, 84%) at 15 to 90 days after booster receipt, but declined to 42% (95% CI: 16%, 61%) after 91 to 180 days, and to 36% (95% CI: 3%, 58%) after 180 days. The relative effectiveness of a second booster compared to a single booster was 24% (95% CI: -40% to 61%). Conclusions: An mRNA vaccine booster dose added significant protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection, but protection decreased over time. A second booster did not add significant protection for adults ≥50 years of age. Uptake of recommended bivalent boosters should be encouraged to increase protection against Omicron BA.4/BA.5 sublineages.

Dynamics of Naturally Acquired Immunity Against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Children and Adolescents.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the duration of protection against reinfection conferred by a previous severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in children and adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: We applied 2 complementary approaches: a matched test-negative, case-control design and a retrospective cohort design. A total of 458 959 unvaccinated individuals aged 5-18 years were included. The analyses focused on the period July 1, 2021, to December 13, 2021, a period of Delta variant dominance in Israel. We evaluated 3 SARS-CoV-2-related outcomes: documented polymerase chain reaction-confirmed infection or reinfection, symptomatic infection or reinfection, and SARS-CoV-2-related hospitalization or death. RESULTS: Overall, children and adolescents who were previously infected acquired durable protection against reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 for at least 18 months. Importantly, no SARS-CoV-2-related deaths were recorded in either the SARS-CoV-2-naïve group or the previously infected group. The effectiveness of naturally acquired immunity against a recurrent infection reached 89.2% (95% CI, 84.7%-92.4%) at 3-6 months after the first infection and declined slightly to 82.5% (95% CI, 79.1%-85.3%) by 9-12 months after infection, with a slight nonsignificant waning trend seen up to 18 months after infection. Additionally, children aged 5-11 years exhibited no significant waning of naturally acquired protection throughout the outcome period, whereas waning protection in those aged 12-18 years was more prominent but still mild. CONCLUSIONS: Children and adolescents who were previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 remain protected to a high degree for 18 months. Further research is needed to examine naturally acquired immunity against Omicron and newer emerging variants.

Population-Level Relative Effectiveness of the COVID-19 Vaccines and the Contribution of Naturally Acquired Immunity.

BACKGROUND: Immune protection against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can be induced by natural infection or vaccination or both. Interaction between vaccine-induced immunity and naturally acquired immunity at the population level has been understudied. METHODS: We used regression models to evaluate whether the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines differed across states with different levels of naturally acquired immunity from March 2021 to April 2022 in the United States. Analysis was conducted for 3 evaluation periods separately (Alpha, Delta, and Omicron waves). As a proxy for the proportion of the population with naturally acquired immunity, we used either the reported seroprevalence or the estimated proportion of the population ever infected in each state. RESULTS: COVID-19 mortality decreased as coverage of ≥1 dose increased among people ≥65 years of age, and this effect did not vary by seroprevalence or proportion of the total population ever infected. Seroprevalence and proportion ever infected were not associated with COVID-19 mortality, after controlling for vaccine coverage. These findings were consistent in all evaluation periods. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccination was associated with a sustained reduction in mortality at state level during the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron periods. The effect did not vary by naturally acquired immunity.

COVID-19 vaccines effectiveness against symptomatic disease and severe outcomes, 2021-2022: a test-negative case-control study.

OBJECTIVES: This study evaluated the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in preventing symptomatic and severe disease. STUDY DESIGN: This was an observational test-negative case-control study. METHODS: Study participants were adults with at least one symptom included in the World Health Organization COVID-19 definition who sought health care in a public emergency department between 1 November 2021 and 2 March 2022 (corresponding with the fifth pandemic wave in Portugal dominated by the Omicron variant). This study used multivariable logistic regression models to estimate and compare the odds ratio of vaccination between test-positive cases and test-negative controls to calculate the absolute and relative vaccine effectiveness. RESULTS: The study included 1059 individuals (522 cases and 537 controls) with a median age of 56 years and 58% were women. Compared with the effectiveness of the primary vaccination scheme that had been completed ≥180 days earlier, the relative effectiveness against symptomatic infection of a booster administered between 14 and 132 days earlier was 71% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 57%, 81%; P < 0.001). The effectiveness of the primary series against symptomatic infection peaked at 85% (95% CI: 56%, 95%) between 14 and 90 days after the last inoculation and decreased to 34% (95% CI: -43%, 50%) after ≥180 days. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the known immunological evasion characteristics of the Omicron variant, results from this study show that vaccine effectiveness increases after booster administration. COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness decreases to less than 50% between 3 and 6 months after completion of the primary cycle; therefore, this would be an appropriate time to administer a booster to restore immunity.

Comparative COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness Over Time in Veterans.

Background: Comparative effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines across patient subgroups is poorly understood and essential to precisely targeting vaccination strategies. Methods: We used the US Department of Veterans Affairs COVID-19 Shared Data Resource to identify veterans who utilize VA health care and had no documented severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection before December 11, 2020. Using a test-negative case-control design (TND), we used conditional logistic regression with adjustment for covariates to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) over time for veterans who received 2 doses of mRNA vaccines or 1 dose of Ad26.Cov2.S. Results: We identified 4.8 million veterans with a mean age of 64 years, of whom 58% had ≥1 chronic disease. Vaccine effectiveness for symptomatic infections, hospitalizations, and ICU admission or death declined over time and varied by the type of vaccine (P < 0.01). VE estimates against symptomatic infection during months 1 and 7 for mRNA-1273 compared with BNT162b2 were 89.7% (95% CI, 84.4%-93.0%) and 57.3% (95% CI, 48.4%-64.7%) vs 81.6% (95% CI, 75.9%-85.9%) and 22.5% (95% CI, 7.2%-35.2%) for individuals age <65 years and 78.4% (95% CI, 71.1%-83.9%) and 36.2% (95% CI, 27.7%-43.6%) vs 66.3% (95% CI, 55.7%-74.4%) and -23.3% (95% CI, -40.5% to -8.2%) in subjects age ≥65 years; against hospitalization 92.0% (95% CI, 76.1%-97.3%) and 83.1% (95% CI, 66.8%-91.4%) vs 85.6% (95% CI, 72.6%-92.4%) and 57.0% (95% CI, 31.2%-73.2%) in subjects age <65 years and 66.1% (95% CI, 45.3%-79.0%) and 64.7% (95% CI, 55.2%-72.3%) vs 61.0% (95% CI, 41.3%-74.2%) and 1.7% (95% CI, -22.0% to 20.8%) in those age ≥65 years; against ICU admission or death 89.2% (95% CI, 49.5%-97.7%) and 84.4% (95% CI, 59.0%-94.1%) vs 87.6% (95% CI, 61.0%-96.1%) and 66.4% (95% CI, 7.7%-87.8%) in subjects age <65 years and 75.4% (95% CI, 51.7%-87.5%) and 73.8 (95% CI, 62.9%-81.5%) vs 67.4% (95% CI, 32.6%-84.3%) and 29.3% (95% CI, 2.3%-48.9%) in subjects age ≥65 years, respectively (P interaction < .01 for all comparisons). Similarly, mRNA-1273 was more effective than BNT162b2 in veterans with >1 chronic disease. Conclusions: mRNA-1273 was more effective than BNT162b2 in older veterans and those with chronic diseases.

Use of whole genome sequencing to estimate the contribution of immune evasion and waning immunity on decreasing COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: The impact variant-specific immune evasion and waning protection have on declining COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness remains unclear. Using whole-genome-sequencing (WGS), we examined the contribution of these factors on the decline observed following the introduction of the Delta variant. Further, we evaluated the utility of calendar-period-based classification as an alternative to WGS. METHODS: We conducted a test-negative-case-control study among people who received SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR testing in the Yale New Haven Health System between April 1 and August 24, 2021. Variant classification was performed using WGS and calendar-period. RESULTS: Overall, 2,029 cases (RT-PCR positive, sequenced samples [infections]) and 343,985 controls (negative RT-PCRs) were included. VE 14-89 days after 2nd dose was significantly higher against WGS-classified Alpha-infection (84.4%, CI: 75.6-90.0%) than Delta-infection (68.9%, CI: 58.0-77.1%, p-value = 0.013). The odds of WGS-classified Delta-infection were significantly higher 90-149 than 14-89 days after 2nd dose (p-value = 0.003). VE estimates against calendar-period-classified infections approximated estimates against WGS-classified infections, however, calendar-period-based classification was subject to outcome misclassification (35%: Alpha-period, 4%: Delta-period). CONCLUSIONS: Both waning protection and variant-specific immune evasion contributed to the lower effectiveness. While VE estimates against calendar-period-classified infections mirrored those against WGS-classified infections, our analysis highlights the need for WGS when variants are co-circulating and misclassification is likely.